Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
